IMPROVED COMPLEX METHOD OF FORECASTING ENERGY CONSUMPTION ON A LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.20535/1813-5420.3.2019.196383Keywords:
demand, energy resources, forecasting, method, structure, energy saving potentialAbstract
The article provides a developed integrated method for forecasting energy consumption, which includes an advanced methodology for predicting energy consumption by a normative method and a method for coordinating predictive solutions by a vector method. According to the improved method, the normative method performs the forecast calculations on the TOP ("Country") and DOWN-levels in terms of the energy. The scenario-based approach examines the impact of changes in the structure of the Ukrainian economy at the level of fuel and energy consumption in the two proposed variants of economic structures. To determine the forecasted demand for energy for the population, a separate methodology has been developed that has features for different types of energy resources. The forecast of electricity and fuel consumption for the population was determined by the specific consumption of fuel and electricity per capita in the base year, demographic forecast and the amount of technological energy saving. For the thermal energy demand for the population consists of the demand for hot water supply, which is annual, and demand for heating of residential premises, which is seasonal. The latter value is determined through the norms for heating residential areas, the forecast of housing development, the potential of technological energy savings due to insulation of existing buildings, reducing the demand for thermal energy for new energy-efficient buildings. Using the vector method, the agreed forecasts for the consumption of electric, thermal energy, coal, natural gas, petroleum products (without population) were made, with the subsequent addition of the population's demand for fuel and energy and the estimation of the forecast demand for energy resources by 2040.References
Kononov Yu.D., Gal'perova E.V., Kononov D.Yu. i dr. (2009) Metody i modeli prognoznykh issledovaniy vzaimosvyazey energetiki i ekonomiki [Methods and models of predictive studies of the relationship of energy and economics.] N.I. Voropay, Yu.D. Kononov (otv. red.) Novosibirsk, 177 pp. (in Russian)
Piriashvili B.Z., Voronchuk M.M., Galinovskiy E.I. i dr. (2008) Imitatsionnoe modelirovanie v energetike [Simulation in the energy sector.] B.M. Danilishin (pod red.). Kiyv: Nauk. dumka, 303 pp. (in Russian)
Li Chao (2016). Modeli prohnozuvannia spozhyvannia elektroenerhii v KNR na dovhostrokovu perspektyvu [Models of forecasting of electricity consumption in the PRC for the long-term perspective] Visnyk Odeskoho natsionalnoho universytetu. Ekonomika. [Bulletin of the Odessa national university. Economics] Vol. 21, no. 5(47), pp. 26—32. Available at: http://visnyk-onu.od.ua/journal/2016_21_5/06.pdf (accessed 10 January 2019). (in Ukrainian)
Rozen V.P., Demchyk Ya.M. (2016). Porivnialnyi analiz metodiv prohnozuvannia spozhyvannia elektroenerhii vyrobnychykh system [Comparative analysis of methods for forecasting electricity consumption of industrial systems]. Visnyk Kryvorizkoho natsionalnoho universytetu [Bulletin of the Kryviy Rih national university] Vol. 42, pp. 41—47. Available at: http://visnykknu.com.ua/wp-content/uploads/file/42/11.pdf (accessed 10 January 2019). (in Ukrainian)
Chernenko P.O., Martyniuk O.V. (2008) Serednostrokove dvorivneve prohnozuvannia elektrychnoho spozhyvannia enerhoobiednannia [Medium-term two-level forecasting of electric energy consumption]. Visnyk Vinnytskoho politekhnichnoho instytutu [Bulletin of the Vinnitsa Polytechnic Institute] No.6, pp. 77—81. (in Ukrainian)
Aheieva T.P. (2002) Metodychni osnovy otsinky enerhozberezhennia ta prohnozuvannia enerhospozhyvannia v sferi zhytlovoho ta komunalno-pobutovoho obsluhovuvannia naselennia Ukrainy [Methodical bases of estimation of energy saving and forecasting of energy consumption in the sphere of residential and communal services of the population of Ukraine] (PhD Thesis). Kiyv: Institute of General Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. (in Ukrainian)
Kasianova N.V., Levshova Yu.O. (2014) Kompleksna model otsinky enerhospozhyvannia v rehioni [Comprehensive model of energy consumption in the region]. Nauchnyy vestnik Donbasskoy gosudarstvennoy mashinostroitel'noy akademii [Scientific bulletin of the Donbas State Machine-Building Academy]. No. 2 (14E), pp.164—171. (in Ukrainian)
Kulyk M.M., Sas D.P. (2014) Determinovano-stokhastychne modeliuvannia vyrobnytstva elektroenerhii v obiednanykh enerhosystemakh na dovhostrokovu perspektyvu [Deterministic-stochastic modeling of electricity generation in combined power systems for the long-term perspective]. Tekhnichna elektrodynamika [Technical electrodynamics]. No.5, pp. 32—34. (in Ukrainian)
Kulyk M.M. (2014) Metody uzghodzhennia prohnoznykh rishen [Methods of coordinating forecast decisions]. Problemy zahalnoi enerhetyky [Problems of general energy]. Vol. 2 (37), pp. 5—12. (in Ukrainian)
Kulyk M.M., Maistrenko N.Yu., Maliarenko O.Ye. (2015) Dvoetapnyi metod prohnozuvannia perspektyvnoho popytu na enerhetychni resursy [A two-stage method for forecasting the future demand for energy resources]. Energotekhnologii i resursosberezhenie [Energy technologies and resource saving] No. 5-6, pp. 25—33. (in Ukrainian)
Hnidyi M.V. (1999) Metodychnyi pidkhid do otsinky obsiahiv enerhospozhyvannia dlia riznykh variantiv struktury ekonomiky [Methodical approach to estimation of volumes of energy consumption for various variants of the structure of the economy]. Problemy zahalnoi enerhetyky [Problems of general energy]. Vol. 1 (1), pp. 52—57. (in Ukrainian)
Maliarenko O.Ye., Maistrenko N.Yu. (2015) Prohnozuvannia rivniv spozhyvannia palyvno-enerhetychnykh resursiv z urakhuvanniam potentsialu enerhozberezhennia pry strukturnykh zminakh v ekonomitsi [Forecasting of consumption levels of fuel and energy resources taking into account the potential of energy saving in case of structural changes in the economy]. Problemy zahalnoi enerhetyky [Problems of general energy]. Vol.2 (41), pp. 5—13. Available at: https://doi.org/10.15407/pge2015.02.005 (accessed 10 January 2019). (in Ukrainian)
Maliarenko O.Ye., Yevtukhova T.O., Maistrenko N.Yu. (2013) Prohnozuvannia zmin kintsevoho spozhyvannia enerhoresursiv z urakhuvanniam strukturnykh i tekhnolohichnykh zrushen v ekonomitsi krainy [Forecast of changes in final energy consumption taking into account structural and technological changes in the national economy]. Problemy zahalnoi enerhetyky [Problems of general energy]. Vol. 4 (35), pp. 33—40. (in Ukrainian)
Kulyk M.M., Maliarenko O.Ye., Maistrenko N.Yu., Stanytsina V.V., Spitkovskyi A.I. (2017) Zastosuvannia metodiv kompleksnoho prohnozuvannia dlia vyznachennia perspektyvnoho popytu na pervynnienerhetychni resursy [The application of integrated forecasting methods to determine the promising demand for primary energy resources]. Problemy zahalnoi enerhetyky [Problems of general energy]. Vol. 1(48), pp. 5—15. Available at: https://doi.org/10.15407/pge2017.01.005 (accessed 10 January 2019). (in Ukrainian)
Bohoslavska O.Yu. (2019) Novi prohramni zasoby dlia prohnozuvannia enerhospozhyvannia z urakhuvanniam strukturnykh zrushen v ekonomitsi [New software for forecasting energy consumption taking into account structural changes in the economy]. Proceedings of the «Enerhetychnyi menedzhment: stan ta perspektyvy rozvytku – PEMS19» (Ukraine, Kyiv, June 04-07, 2019) Kiyv: KPI them Igor Sikorsky, pp. 53-54. (in Ukrainian)
Maistrenko N.Yu., Bohoslavska O.Yu. (2019) Osoblyvosti prohnozuvannia rivniv enerhospozhyvannia Ukrainy pry zastosuvanni riznykh prohnoznykh struktur ekonomiky [Features of forecasting of energy consumption levels of Ukraine in application of various forecasting structures of the economy]. Problemy zahalnoi enerhetyky [Problems of general energy]. Vol.2 (57), pp. 21-26. (in Ukrainian)
Maliarenko O.Ye., Maistrenko N.Yu., Stanytsina V.V. (2015) Udoskonalenyi metodychnyi pidkhid do vyznachennia ekonomichno dotsilnoho potentsialu enerhozberezhennia v enerhoiemnykh vydakh ekonomichnoi diialnosti [Improved methodical approach to determining the economically viable energy saving potential in energy intensive economic activities]. Problemy zahalnoi enerhetyky [Problems of general energy]. Vol.3 (42), pp. 23-30. (in Ukrainian)
Spitkovskyi A.I., Maliarenko O.Ye., Maistrenko N.Yu., Stanytsina V.V. (2017) Vykorystannia prohramy «SPROS» dlia prohnozuvannia popytu na enerhetychni resursy [Use of the "SPROS" program to predict demand for energy resources]. Problemy zahalnoi enerhetyky [Problems of general energy] Vol.2 (49), pp.5-13. Available at: https://doi.org/10.15407/pge2017.02.005 (accessed 10 January 2019). (in Ukrainian)
Enerhetychna stratehiia Ukrainy do 2030 r., redaktsiia 2013 r. (2013) [Energy Strategy of Ukraine till 2030, edition 2013] Available at: http://www.energoatom.kiev.ua/ua/about/strategy_2030 (accessed 10 January 2019). (in Ukrainian)
Stratehiia rozvytku promyslovoho kompleksu Ukrainy na period do 2025 roku. [Strategy of development of the industrial complex of Ukraine for the period till 2025]. Available at: http://www.me.gov.ua/Documents/Detail?lang=uk-UA&id=10ef5b65-0209-4aa1-a724-49fd0877d8d6&title=ProektRozporiadzhenniaKabinetuMinistrivUkrainiproSkhvalenniaStrategiiRozvitkuPromislovogoKompleksuUkrainiNaPeriodDo2025-Roku (accessed 10 January 2019). (in Ukrainian)
Maliarenko O.Ye., Maistrenko N.Yu. , Stanytsina V.V. (2016) Obgruntuvannia prohnoznykh obsiahiv potentsialu enerhozberezhennia v ukrupnenykh sektorakh ekonomiky z urakhuvanniam tekhnolohichnykh i strukturnykh zrushen [Justification of the projected volumes of energy saving potential in the enlarged sectors of the economy, taking into account technological and structural developments]. Problemy zahalnoi enerhetyky [Problems of general energy]. Vol.4 (47), pp.58-67. (in Ukrainian)
Maliarenko O.Ye., Stanytsina V.V. (2019) Utochnennia metodyky prohnozuvannia popytu na palyvo z otsinkoiu strukturnoho potentsialu enerhozberezhennia v enerhetychnomu sektori [Clarification of the methodology for forecasting demand for fuel with an assessment of the structural potential of energy saving in the energy sector]. Problemy zahalnoi enerhetyky [Problems of general energy]. Vol.1 (56), pp. 19-23. Available at: https://doi.org/10.15407/pge2019.01.019 (accessed 10 January 2019). (in Ukrainian)
Nechaieva T.P. (2015) Metody ta zasoby prohnozuvannia rozvytku struktury heneruiuchykh potuzhnostei elektroenerhetychnoi systemy z urakhuvanniam ekolohichnykh vymoh [Methods and means of forecasting the development of the structure of generating capacities of the power system taking into account environmental requirements] (PhD Thesis). Kiyv, Institute of General Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. (in Ukrainian)
Kulyk M.M., Horbulin V.P., Kyrylenko O.V. (2017) Kontseptualni pidkhody do rozvytku enerhetyky Ukrainy (analitychni materialy) [Conceptual approaches to energy development in Ukraine (analytical materials)]. Kiyv, Institute of General Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. (in Ukrainian)
Maliarenko O.Ye. (2016) Metodychnyi pidkhid do vyznachennia prohnoznoi struktury spozhyvannia pervynnoho palyva [Methodical approach to determining the predicted structure of primary fuel consumption]. Problemy zahalnoi enerhetyky [Problems of general energy]. Vol.3 (46), pp. 28—39. Available at: https://doi.org/10.15407/pge2016.03.028. (accessed 10 January 2019). (in Ukrainian)
KTM 204 Ukraine 244-94 (2004) Posibnyk ta dopovnennia do «Norm ta vkazivok po normuvanniu vytrat palyva ta teplovoi enerhii na opalennia zhytlovykh ta hromadskykh sporud, a takozh na hospodarsko-pobutovi potreby v Ukraini» [The manual and supplements to the "Norms and instructions on the standardization of fuel and heat energy expenditures for heating of residential and public buildings, as well as for household and household needs in Ukraine"]. Ukraine, Kiyv, pp. 84. (in Ukrainian)
Kuts H.O., Maliarenko O.Ye., Maistrenko N.Yu., Stanytsina V.V. (2018) Vyznachennia prohnoznoho popytu na teplovu enerhiiu kompleksnym metodom z urakhuvanniam potentsialu enerhozberezhennia [Determination of the forecasted demand for thermal energy by a complex method taking into account the potential of energy saving]. Problemy zahalnoi enerhetyky [Problems of general energy]. Vol. 3(54), pp. 10—15. Available at:https://doi.org/10.15407/pge2018.03.010. (accessed 10 January 2019). (in Ukrainian)
Maistrenko N.Yu. (2018) Prohnozuvannia rivniv spozhyvannia PER u pererobnii promyslovosti z urakhuvanniam zahalnoho strukturnoho potentsialu enerhozberezhennia [Forecasting of consumption levels of FER in the processing industry taking into account the overall structural potential of energy saving]. Problemy zahalnoi enerhetyky [Problems of general energy]. Vol.1(52), pp. 32—40. Available at: https://doi.org/10.15407/pge2018.01.032. (accessed 10 January 2019). (in Ukrainian)
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Автори, які публікуються у цьому журналі, погоджуються з наступними умовами:
- Автори залишають за собою право на авторство своєї роботи та передають журналу право першої публікації цієї роботи на умовах ліцензії Creative Commons Attribution License, котра дозволяє іншим особам вільно розповсюджувати опубліковану роботу з обов'язковим посиланням на авторів оригінальної роботи та першу публікацію роботи у цьому журналі.
- Автори мають право укладати самостійні додаткові угоди щодо неексклюзивного розповсюдження роботи у тому вигляді, в якому вона була опублікована цим журналом (наприклад, розміщувати роботу в електронному сховищі установи або публікувати у складі монографії), за умови збереження посилання на першу публікацію роботи у цьому журналі.
- Політика журналу дозволяє і заохочує розміщення авторами в мережі Інтернет (наприклад, у сховищах установ або на особистих веб-сайтах) рукопису роботи, як до подання цього рукопису до редакції, так і під час його редакційного опрацювання, оскільки це сприяє виникненню продуктивної наукової дискусії та позитивно позначається на оперативності та динаміці цитування опублікованої роботи (див. The Effect of Open Access).
