ESTIMATION OF RISKS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF NATURALLY TECHNOGENIC ENVIRONMENTS

Abstract

The risks of development of such natural-tech environments as landfills of solid household
waste, tailings dams, waste heaps at extraction of minerals for the possibility of their re-use as a basis of structures
for civil and industrial construction are carried out in the work. The example of the Boryspil solid waste landfill
highlights the main indicators of sources of risk: human impact, risk of explosions and fires, respiratory response,
sanitary-epidemic danger, effect on the atmospheric air, impact on the ground cover, accumulation of heavy metals
on groundwater in the presence of systems for collecting and draining filtration water, deformation of the surface.
The methodology of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis was used to expertly assess the risks of reuse of areas
occupied by natural and man-made environments for the construction of civilian and industrial sites. The experts
were asked to rank the action by paired comparisons. A pairwise comparison consisted in a consistent comparison
of each action with each other. The methodology assumes a risk rating based on the Risk priority number, which is
a product of the rankings obtained by expertly assessing the severity of the consequences and the likelihood that an
object will not be detected, by the frequency of emergencies. First, the risks with the highest Risk priority number
are eliminated. Possible scenarios and combinations of risk spectrum scenarios (technical, environmental, social,
economic) have been identified. These priorities were ranked in descending order (from 10 to 0): the highest score
was assigned to the maximum value (the most dangerous) that was given effect. The results of the expert evaluation
of the signs of severity and non-detection obtained from one expert are presented. We show matrices of related trait
severity and non-detection traits, compiled by all experts. 16 experts participated in our work. Based on the ranking
of expert indicators, matrices for estimating the impact of sources of risk for the choice of remediation direction and
subsequent use of natural-tech environments were constructed. The result was used to quantify the risk presented by
the criticality matrix of this indicating system, a measure of its impact on its reliability.