APPLICATION PROBABILISTIC-STATISTICAL APPROACH FOR CONSTRUCTION OF ELECTRICAL BALANCES OF AMMONIA DEPARTMENT

Abstract

The article considers the improvement of the methodology for constructing the balance of electricity consumption based on the use of methods to obtain more objective and verifiable background information, including methods of collecting and compiling the necessary statistics. That is to improve the results of constructing energy balance of production facilities necessary to apply probabilistic and statistical methods. Construction of electric balances of production facilities using a probabilistic-statistical approach can be based on the construction of multifactor mathematical models of electricity consumption by the enterprise as a whole and its units, on establishing confidence intervals for these models, on determining options for possible electricity use by individual units or on production certain types of products, as well as to identify the most likely distribution of energy at the facility. Using the probabilistic-statistical approach, which is proposed to be used in the conditions of uncertainty of the initial data, it is possible to build more reliable balances of electricity consumption of industrial facilities than with the help of calculation and analytical method. However, the possibility of applying probabilistic and statistical methods for constructing of electric balances may be considerably complicated for enterprises with a wide range of products and complex, extensive circuit manufacturing process when manufacturing certain products involves many departments.