forecasting, electricity generation, solar power plant, correlation matrix, intensity of solar radiation


The new model of the wholesale electricity market in Ukraine causes appearance the market for the day ahead. In this market, the generating company undertakes to supply a certain amount of electricity. So, it is necessary to carry on the most accurate forecast of possible electricity generation by solar power plant (SPP). Generation value depends on certain factors. A brief summary of different influence of parameters on the PV cell performance has been provided. The article analyzes and identifies the factors that should be included in the forecast mathematical model of electricity generation by a solar power plant for a certain short-term period. According to analyzed data from SPP located in the Kyiv region, such parameters are the intensity of solar radiation, temperature and humidity, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure. The degree of influence of these factors on the initial function of electric energy generation were estimated by analyzing the scatter plot diagrams of relationship between parameters and correlation coefficients. Thus, the analysis of the influence of factors on the magnitude of electricity generation allowed to determine the priority of including each of the parameters in the mathematical model of the SPP power forecast. It was established that the influence of certain climate parameters for target function is different in each season. Therefore, in the mathematical model for forecasting electric power generation, it is necessary to take into account seasonality. In addition, the dynamic value change of factors also affects the current magnitude of electricity generation. Moreover, at different times of the year and with different combination of the corresponding values of climatic parameters, this effect may have different magnitudes. Therefore, the data obtained from the last periods before the forecasting should have a greater impact on obtaining the predicted value than the data from previous periods.


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