IMPROVED COMPLEX METHOD OF FORECASTING ENERGY CONSUMPTION ON A LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE

О. Malyarenko; N. Maistrenko; V. Stanytsina; О. Bogoslavska

doi:10.20535/1813-5420.3.2019.196383

Автор(и)

О. Malyarenko https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5882-916X
N. Maistrenko https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1757-1665
V. Stanytsina https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1005-6185
О. Bogoslavska https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4286-7505

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20535/1813-5420.3.2019.196383

Ключові слова:

demand, energy resources, forecasting, method, structure, energy saving potential

Анотація

The article provides a developed integrated method for forecasting energy consumption, which includes an advanced methodology for predicting energy consumption by a normative method and a method for coordinating predictive solutions by a vector method. According to the improved method, the normative method performs the forecast calculations on the TOP ("Country") and DOWN-levels in terms of the energy. The scenario-based approach examines the impact of changes in the structure of the Ukrainian economy at the level of fuel and energy consumption in the two proposed variants of economic structures. To determine the forecasted demand for energy for the population, a separate methodology has been developed that has features for different types of energy resources. The forecast of electricity and fuel consumption for the population was determined by the specific consumption of fuel and electricity per capita in the base year, demographic forecast and the amount of technological energy saving. For the thermal energy demand for the population consists of the demand for hot water supply, which is annual, and demand for heating of residential premises, which is seasonal. The latter value is determined through the norms for heating residential areas, the forecast of housing development, the potential of technological energy savings due to insulation of existing buildings, reducing the demand for thermal energy for new energy-efficient buildings. Using the vector method, the agreed forecasts for the consumption of electric, thermal energy, coal, natural gas, petroleum products (without population) were made, with the subsequent addition of the population's demand for fuel and energy and the estimation of the forecast demand for energy resources by 2040.

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