FEATURES OF TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC JUSTIFICATION OF DECISIONS IN PROSPECTIVE PLANNING OF POWER SUPPLY SYSTEMS

Анотація

Feasibility study is an important tool that is actively used to substantiate the best options in the design of various power facilities. The example of the problem of choosing the nominal power of distribution transformers shows that in solving this problem, given the rather long planning horizon, it is necessary to take into account the uncertainty of at least such factors as the nature and dynamics of electricity cost, loads, operating cost. Due to the lack of sufficient statistics, it is proposed to set the appropriate parameters in the form of intervals of the possible values. As a result, A will also be represented as an interval value. In this case, when comparing the discounted costs corresponding to different alternatives, the main difficulty lies in choosing a procedure for comparing interval values. There are several approaches to comparing overlapping intervals. It is shown that with an increase in the planning horizon, the probability of distinguishable intervals decreases sharply. This makes it difficult to make well grounded decisions about the preference of one of the options. The possibility of using the apparatus of interval analysis in focusing on both traditional arithmetic operations and generalized Hansen interval arithmetic (which allows one to reduce the uncertainty when performing arithmetic operations) for this purpose is analyzed. It is substantiated that a more effective approach in this case is to use the apparatus of game theory. In order to discretize the problem, ЛПτ sequences were used that permits one to select points most uniformly distributed in the n- dimensional cube. A series of experimental calculations was performed, in which it was shown that considering the factor of information uncertainty significantly affects the justification of the optimal nominal power of distribution transformers in the design of power supply systems.