RISK ASSESSMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EXEMPLIFIED TERRITORIES

Abstract

The paper explores the risks associated with exempted and liberated territories that were previously used for certain industrial, commercial, agricultural or other activities. Such territories were captured or used by military forces during the war and then liberated or abandoned and left unattended, or were disturbed by natural disasters, man-made accidents, etc. The aim of the article is to analyze the possibility of their further use and rehabilitation.

The following indicators of risk sources can be identified in such areas: presence of explosive objects; level of soil and water contamination; presence of chemical, biological or radiation contamination; degree of damage to infrastructure and building structures; risk of dangerous situations and accidents; impact on the health and safety of the local population; possibility of spreading infectious diseases; presence of unexploded or uncontrolled explosive materials; risk of re-invasion by enemy forces; potential environmental damage; and potential environmental impact. Based on the analysis of these indicators, they were summarized and grouped into six main risk indicators: demining of territories; efficiency of demining and disposal of remnants of military equipment, mines, etc.; safety and efficiency of demining and disposal technologies; degree of contamination of the demined territories after demining and disposal; level of safety assessment of the population living in these territories; return of vital infrastructure. An expert assessment methodology was applied, which includes an analysis of the severity of the consequences and the likelihood of their occurrence. The risks were ranked using the method of pairwise comparisons. The results of the study can be used to develop strategies for the further use and rehabilitation of the affected areas.

The results of the study indicate the need for systematic monitoring and control of the exempted and liberated territories in order to prevent possible environmental and socio-economic problems. To ensure sustainable development and conservation of natural resources, due attention should be paid to the issues of environmental safety and rehabilitation of these territories. Further research in this area will allow developing more effective strategies for the use and rehabilitation of exempted areas, taking into account current environmental and socio-economic challenges.