ОЦІНКА КОМПЛЕКСНИХ ПОКАЗНИКІВ ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ СТРАТЕГІЧНОГО РОЗВИТКУ ВІДНОВЛЮВАЛЬНИХ ДЖЕРЕЛ ЕНЕРГІЇ УКРАЇНИ В СТРУКТУРІ ВІДНОВЛЮВАЛЬНОЇ НАЦІОНАЛЬНОЇ ЕНЕРГЕТИКИ УКРАЇНИ

Stefan Zaichenko; Denys Derevianko; Andrii Trachuk; Natalia Jukova

doi:10.20535/1813-5420.3.2024.314624

Authors

Stefan Zaichenko National Technical University of Ukraine «Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute», Ukraine https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8446-5408
Denys Derevianko National Technical University of Ukraine «Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute», Ukraine https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4877-5601
Andrii Trachuk National Technical University of Ukraine «Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute», Ukraine
Natalia Jukova National Technical University of Ukraine «Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute», Ukraine https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4215-6981

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20535/1813-5420.3.2024.314624

Keywords:

renewable energy, forecasting systems, Holt's method, biomass, solar energy, wind energy, TPP (Thermal power plant) on biomass, RES (renewable energy sources).

Abstract

The article is devoted to a systematic review of modern trends in the use of renewable energy sources and their impact on the country's energy system. The basis of the analysis is the assessment of the degree of technological maturity of renewable energy technologies, the effectiveness of their implementation in comparison with traditional energy sources. Thanks to a wide range of analysis, the article makes an important contribution to understanding the prospects and determinants of effective implementation of renewable national energy in the context of modern energy challenges and can serve as a basis for further research in this field.

In this article, the Holt method was chosen as the main method for forecasting - to build forecast models for four key components of renewable energy sources (RES) in Ukraine - wind, solar, hydropower and biomass. Based on the forecasting results, the authors determined the prospects for the development of renewable national energy in Ukraine. The obtained results emphasize the strategic importance of intensifying efforts in the field of development, attracting investments and revising the energy policy with the aim of aligning it with global trends towards a carbon-neutral economy. Appropriate recommendations have been developed regarding the revision of the Energy Strategy of Ukraine and the optimization of the legal framework for effective supervision of the proper condition of all generating capacities of the energy system. In the light of these forecasts, the article emphasizes the need for proactive measures to ensure the sustainable and growth of the ecologically clean strategic sector - renewable national energy of Ukraine.

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State Statistics Service of Ukraine [Electronic resource]. Available at: http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua.

EVALUATION OF COMPLEX INDICATORS FOR FORECASTING THE STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES OF UKRAINE WITHIN THE STRUCTURE OF RENEWABLE NATIONAL ENERGY INDUSTRY OF UKRAINE

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